"Wallabies stun Springboks" - 5 Bold Predictions: 2025 Rugby Championship

Formerly the Tri Nations Championship until Argentina entered the fray back in 2012, The current Rugby Championship title is in the possession of the Springboks, after Rassie Erasamus' men won all but one Test in last year's competition. Before the trophy made it's way down to South Africa, the Rugby Championship title was firmly under All Blacks ownership.

New Zealand held the title from 2020 to 2023, and have long dominated the competition. Since the arrival of Los Pumas in 2012, the All Blacks won the Rugby Championship an impressive nine out of the past 12 tournaments. The winner of the tournament is determined at the end of the six rounds, and will be the nation that sits at the top of the table once all the fixtures have been played. No play-offs, no knock-outs, just good old-fashioned round-robin rugby.

So, ahead of the 13th iteration of the four-team competition, we've once again laid out our customary Five Bold Predictions prior to the opening round on Saturday 16th August.

ROUND 1: August 16th: South Africa vs Australia (Johannesburg) / Argentina vs New Zealand (Corboda)

ROUND 2: August 23rd: South Africa vs Australia (Cape Town) / Argentina vs New Zealand (Buenos Aires)

ROUND 3 September 6th: Australia vs Argentina (Townsville) / New Zealand vs South Africa (Auckland)

ROUND 4: September 13th: Australia vs Argentina (Sydney) / New Zealand vs South Africa (Wellington)

ROUND 5: September 27th: New Zealand vs Australia (Auckland) / South Africa vs Argentina (Durban)

ROUND 6: October 4th: Australia vs New Zealand (Perth) / Argentina vs South Africa (London)

Starting off punchy with out bold predictions, with a suggestion that is sure to ruffle a few feathers in the land of the Springboks. Despite looking strong in the three-match Test series against the British & Irish Lions, you would be hard-pressed to find a non-Aussie rugby viewer who whole-heatedly backs the Wallabies to win out in South Africa.

However, we expect Joe Schmidt's men to be more than competitive, with our gut feeling being that the Wallabies could even bag the win in the opening round in Johannesburg. It's tough to get a real gauge as to where the Springboks are currently operating, as Rassie Erasamus' side were not exactly tested by their schedule throughout the Summer. South Africa hammered the Barbarians 54-7 in Cape Town, lapped up two heavy beat downs over Italy (42-24 & 45-0), before then welcoming Georgia to tier one rugby with a devastating 55-10 defeat.

Whilst South Africa relished a trilogy of easy wins, Joe Schmidt had to juggle all sorts, with dis-jointed training sides, Super Rugby clubs, and Invitational XVs pulling his squad from pillar-to-post ahead of the Lions series. Much in the manor that the Lions struggled with cohesion ahead of their warm-up defeat to Argentina back in Dublin, with Premiership & URC finalists repeatedly absent from training, the Wallabies felt the affects of repeated logistical obstacles as the Lions ventured through the 10-match tour.

As a result, the Wallabies were slow to start the first Test against the Lions, as Andy Farrell's men raced away and out of reach in Brisbane. The Wallabies strength emerged late in the second half, as Australia hit back with tries from Carlo Tizzano and Tate McDermott, that upset the closing stages. Then, once the Brisbane bruises had healed, Australia rallied back for the incredible second Test. Hugo Keenan last-minute Lions' winner optimised the intensity of what many considered to be the match of the tour, albeit amongst the controversy of Jac Morgan's non-penalised ruck clear-out.

The Wallabies felt hard-done-by with the narrow 29-26 loss, and fired back strong for the third and final fixture. A dominant 22-12 Wallabies win denied the Lions the whitewash, and set a precedence for their upcoming Rugby Championship ambitions. Schmidt's side have clicked into gear, whilst South Africa are yet to face a true challenge in the lead up to the tournament. The opening round could well go to the visitors, in what would be the first Australian win in South Africa since the heroics of the 2011 Tri Nations.

What a result this would be for Los Pumas, after Argentina endured a mixed bag of results throughout the Summer, which featured some scintillating highs and forgettable lows. Argentina proved themselves once again with an incredible victory over the British & Irish Lions in Dublin, to send the tourists 'down under' along with the sour taste of defeat.

Argentina claimed the 1888 Cup from that international exhibition in the Irish capital, yet Los Pumas were unable to add to their silverware collection throughout the Summer. Whilst it is not necessarily the most coveted or well-known title in world rugby, Argentina lost back-to-back Summer Tests against England, with Steve Borthwick's men lifting the Copa Visa Macro Trophy following wins in San Juan and La Plata.

Despite this drop away from the winning side of the score-line, Argentina still held firm against England. Los Pumas fought to the very end of their series, with a narrow defeat coming at just 22-17 in the second Test, after a heavier opening loss to the tourists (35-12). A 52-17 hammering of Uruguay turned the mood around in the final week of Argentina's Summer camp, with the South American bragging rights held firmly by Los Pumas once again.

Argentina should by no means be written off in the upcoming Rugby Championship, with the blue and whites' best hopes of bagging a shock win coming against the All Blacks in the opening weekend. New Zealand had a 'unique' Summer, as they took on a heavily undermanned France side that featured a predominantly inexperienced squad.

Fabien Galthie's decision to leave his biggest names at home garnered quite a lot of criticism from the All Blacks and New Zealand journalists alike, as the Kiwis secured an expected 3-0 whitewash of wins across Auckland, Dunedin and Wellington. However, this French 'B' team still caused the All Blacks a few issues, with the inexperienced Les Bleus running a near full strength New Zealand side close at 31-27 in the first Test. This scare was weathered, with the All Blacks firing back with two more convincing triumphs as the Summer progressed.

Yet the warning signs are there for the All Blacks; underestimate their opponents and expect a hard-fought contest to wake up their campaign. This opening weekend of the Rugby Championship is no different, should New Zealand look past Argentina ahead of the opening whistle, then a revamped and reinvigorated Pumas outfit could well stun the All Blacks for a re-run of their iconic triumph from the same competition, back in 2022.

The heart of English Rugby has steadily become a second home for the Springboks, with South Africa once again set for a showcase fixture at the Allianz Stadium, Twickenham. On Saturday October 4th, South Africa take on Argentina in the final round of the Rugby Championship, with a capacity crowd of dedicated 'Bokke' fans expected to once again flood the stadium in a sea of green and gold.

Due to the sizeable South African population across parts of West London, the Springboks always get a strong following for their trips to the Allianz. Whilst the clashes with England are quite evenly split along with the home supporters who don the red rose, these standalone clashes against other 'visiting' sides more often than not feel like home matches for the Springboks.

The most recent instances of this have all felt the same, with the smell of braai in the air, and 'Bokke!' chants ringing around Twickenham. In a warm-up match ahead of the 2023 Rugby World Cup, South Africa took on the All Blacks for a sell-out clash at the Allianz. The relentless Springbok support witnessed the World Champions hand New Zealand their heaviest ever defeat (35-7), in what was a dark day in the history of the All Blacks.

South Africa would return to Twickenham the following Summer to take on Wales, in the first of a double-header event that also featured the Barbarians vs Fiji. Despite the locality across the British Isles, the Welsh fans were heavily outnumbered by the South African supporters, as the crowd of Green and Gold enjoyed a one-sided 41-13 beat down over Warren Gatland's dejected men.

Whilst the supporters themselves have no direct involvement on the pitch (unless the stewards forget to do their job), the Springboks certainly relish their recent trips to the Allianz Stadium. This hot-streak continued throughout the 2024 Autumn Series, as South Africa handed England a 29-20 defeat for a third win on the bounce at the stadium known as 'HQ'.

South Africa's last defeat at Twickenham was back in the 2021 Autumn Series, when Eddie Jones' England wrestled a 27-26 victory from the clutches of the Springboks. Whilst Argentina will certainly poise a threat for an enjoyable on-field exhibition, recent history suggests that you have to favour the Springboks when the back-to-back World Champions arrive in London.

The fixtures that could well decide the outcome of the 2025 Rugby Championship, are once again the battles between the All Blacks and Springboks. This year, Rassie Erasamus will lead his side out to New Zealand, with two highly anticipated fixtures lined-up in Rounds 3 and 4 across Auckland and Wellington. It's the clash in Eden Park that immediately draws our attention, as New Zealand have long upheld the stadium as a fortress of their dominance on the global rugby stage.

You'd have to re-wind the clocks back to July 3rd, 1994, to find the last time New Zealand lost a match at Eden Park. It was a stunning French outfit that handed the All Blacks their last defeat in the Auckland amphitheater, with New Zealand since establishing a formidable 50-match streak that has now stretched into it's 31st year of existence.

What is not often mentioned about the All Blacks' unbeaten streak in the stadium, is that the Springboks almost ended the run before it ever begun. The following month and next match after France handed New Zealand the now famous defeat in 1994, South Africa held the All Blacks to a 18-18 draw. The Springboks will once again arrive at Eden Park with the intention of ending the streak, yet we back Scott Robertson's side to get the job done against South Africa this September.

This All Blacks side has found a fresh rhythm under Razor’s leadership, blending break-out youth with Scott Barrett's hardened experience, and the unplayable star-power of their main attractions. With players like Damian McKenzie, Beauden Barrett and Ardie Savea all striding for top form, and Jordie Barrett firing off the back of his season sabbatical with Leinster, the hosts look primed for the occasion. Expect fireworks, but the fortress holds.

What will make this encounter even more intriguing is the recent shift in playing styles. The Springboks, while still physical, have shown a willingness to play wider and faster against Italy and Georgia, albeit due to the weakened defences posed by the Azzurri and Lelos. However, this could well play into New Zealand’s hands if the tempo breaks open. Eden Park rewards sides that thrive in chaos, and few teams in world rugby embrace unstructured brilliance like the All Blacks.

With a roaring home crowd behind them and history on their side, New Zealand will ride the occasion like only they know how. This won’t be a walkover, but expect a 5-10 point margin and another chapter added to the Eden Park legend. The streak lives on.

In what could be one of the tightest finishes to a Rugby Championship in recent memory, we’re backing the All Blacks to clinch the title, but only just. After a bruising and dramatic six-week campaign, it all comes down to small margins and crucial matchups, with the overall standings tilting in New Zealand’s favour by the slimmest of leads.

Key to this outcome is a pair of major results. First, a thrilling Round 4 draw between the Springboks and All Blacks in Wellington; a clash for the ages that leaves both sides battered, but still in contention. Then, just as South Africa hope to close the gap, their earlier shock defeat to Australia proves costly. It's that rare Wallaby win that ultimately tips the scale.

Meanwhile, Argentina throw an early wrench into the title race by stunning the All Blacks in Round 1, a historic win that briefly plants seeds of doubt and has Razor’s men on the back foot from the get-go. But the All Blacks recover swiftly, stringing together a trio of wins and managing to stay unbeaten at home.

In the end, it’s consistency that pays off. The All Blacks finish with a tournament record of 4 wins, 1 loss, and 1 draw, giving them 18 points under our prediction model (excluding bonus points and scoring margins). The Springboks aren’t far behind, but suffer two defeats and draw once to finish second.

The final table reads:

For clarity of predictions, this table does not include winning or losing bonus points, tries scored

or the positive or negative points differential

Crucially, this prediction hinges on the idea that no side dominates outright — instead, the Championship becomes a war of attrition. The All Blacks’ ability to navigate adversity, respond to early setbacks, and hold firm in the biggest fixtures earns them the crown.

No grand slam. No bonus-point blowouts. Just enough. Just champions.