“Still a chance” – How England can win the 2025 Six Nations next weekend

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Fabien Galthié’s side are now in the driver’s seat, but England and Ireland remain firmly in the hunt. Even Scotland—somehow—still have a mathematical chance.

So, what does each team need to do to lift the trophy?

Scotland need a perfect storm to win. First, they must beat France with a bonus point, taking them to 16 points. However, that alone isn’t enough—they also need to overturn a 103-point deficit on Les Bleus, meaning a 52-point victory is required.

Even if that happens, Ireland must lose to Italy, and England must drop points against either Italy or Wales. There’s also a scenario where England and Ireland could both reach 16, adding further complications. Realistically, Scotland’s hopes are non-existent, but mathematically, they still have a shot.

Ireland’s Grand Slam dream is over, but the title isn’t completely out of reach. The best they can do is finish on 19 points by securing a four-try victory over Italy. However, they now rely on others slipping up.

If England fail to reach 19 and France lose to Scotland, Andy Farrell’s side could still take the title. They play first on Super Saturday, giving them the chance to set the target, but they no longer control their own fate. A big win over Italy is the bare minimum, but they’ll need a helping hand elsewhere.

England must win their final two matches against Italy and Wales, ideally with bonus points, to reach 20. That would eliminate Ireland and put them ahead of France if Galthié’s side fail to secure a bonus-point win over Scotland.

A total of 19 points could be enough, but it may come down to points difference. Crucially, England play before France, meaning they can apply pressure by setting a high target. Steve Borthwick’s men have a clear path to the title—but there’s no room for slip-ups.

France’s dramatic win in Dublin put them in pole position. They sit on 16 points and will seal the title with a bonus-point victory over Scotland, which would take them to 21.

If they win without a bonus, England could match them on 20, but France’s superior points difference should be enough. A loss—or even a draw—could let England or Ireland in. They play last on Super Saturday, meaning they’ll know exactly what’s required. If France hold their nerve, the trophy is theirs.

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