New Zealand NPC: Round 3 Preview - Bay of Plenty enter weekend in poll position

After two rounds of the 2025 NPC, Bay of Plenty top the table with two wins, scoring 76 points and conceding just 29. Hawke’s Bay and Taranaki follow closely with nine points each, showing strong attacking and defensive form. Canterbury, Waikato, Otago, and Tasman sit mid-table, all posting one or two wins but with mixed points differences.

Wellington, Manawatū, and Northland are battling for momentum after narrow defeats. Auckland, Southland, North Harbour, and Counties Manukau occupy the lower end, yet early bonus points suggest they remain capable of climbing. The table is tight, promising an unpredictable Round 3.

Southland return home hunting their first win of the season, and will look to recover their trademark physicality in the pack. Invercargill’s cold, windy conditions could play into their favour, slowing down the tempo and forcing Manawatū into an arm-wrestle. The visitors showed flashes of brilliance in Round 2, as replacement prop James Tofa and centre Kyle Brown both crossing in their loss to Tasman. However, Manawatu also conceded seven tries, as their defensive shape was torn apart by quick ball and lineout variations. For the Stags, this is a golden opportunity to punish a leaky defensive unit, provided they control possession and dominate the collisions.

Expect Southland to target the set-piece battle, kicking into corners to unleash their maul. Manawatū, meanwhile, will aim to use pace out wide, with Taine Roiri’s try last week showing they can be clinical when space opens up. Both sides will see this as a winnable fixture, but the question is whether Manawatū’s attack can find holes in Southland’s traditionally stubborn home defence.

Bay of Plenty will look to build on their 39-22 demolition of Counties Manukau, where Veveni Lasaqa opened the scoring and Lucas Cashmore’s speed tore gaps through the defence. Naitoa Ah Kuoi and Kurt Eklund also crossed for tries, supported by Kaleb Trask’s reliable boot (4 conversions, 2 penalties).

Canterbury, meanwhile, edged Auckland 19-15, with Jone Rova and Zac Gallagher delivering crucial tries under wet conditions, while James White’s conversion kept the scoreboard ticking. The clash will hinge on Bay of Plenty’s forward power versus Canterbury’s structured patience. Expect Bay to test the lineout and maul, exploiting any defensive lapses, while Canterbury will aim to control possession through Jackson Garden-Bachop's precision kicking and patient build-up. Set-piece battles and counter-attacks from kicks could decide the outcome, as both teams have proven they can score when given quick ball and space.

Tasman arrive in Whangarei on the back of a 49-17 rout over Manawatū, highlighted by Leicester Fainga’anuku’s try scoring return to the Makos, as he bagged a brace. Also, David Havili’s vision, and Eli Oudenryn and Lopeti Faifua’s lineout maul successes wrecked havoc for Manawatu. Ethan Blackadder also dominated the breakdowns, providing quick ball for their forwards and backs alike.

Northland, after a disappointing Round 2, must tighten up their defence and disrupt Tasman’s structured attack. The game will likely revolve around Northland’s ability to contest line-outs and slow the tempo, attempting to nullify Tasman’s dynamic wings and midfield link play. Expect Fainga’anuku to be a constant aerial and finishing threat, while Havili orchestrates traffic, and Blackadder ensures continuity at rucks. Northland will need creativity in attack, using forwards to punch holes and exploiting any missed tackles, while kicking strategically to regain territory.

Auckland’s Round 2 loss to Canterbury saw Codemeru Vai and Xavier Tito-Harris cross for tries, but their backline lacked finishing support under pressure. James Spencer’s composure at fullback was tested repeatedly. Taranaki, conversely, enjoyed a dominant win over North Harbour, with Bradley Slater’s hat-trick from maul drives and Jared Proffit’s opportunistic try showcasing forward strength and set-piece control.

Taranaki could well look for scrum and maul penalties early, ton test Auckland’s defensive cohesion, while Auckland will rely on wide pace and counter-attacks from the flanks. Lineout security and breakdown efficiency will be pivotal, as Taranaki’s forwards seek to replicate their Round 2 dominance while Auckland looks to exploit space behind the defensive line.

Hawke’s Bay travel on the back of a 27-21 win over Otago, with Ere Enari and Devan Flanders crossing early to build a strong lead. Jacob Devery extended the advantage, while Harry Godfrey’s kicking provided control. Otago’s late fightback through Joseva Tamani, Jona Nareki, and Lucas Casey highlighted Hawke’s Bay’s occasional defensive lapses.

Against North Harbour, the Magpies will aim to dominate possession and maintain intensity at rucks, controlling tempo while exploiting pace outside. Enari’s sniping support lines, Flanders’ power, and Godfrey’s tactical kicking could puncture North Harbour’s backline, while Hawke’s Bay must stay disciplined to prevent counterattacks. Set-piece solidity and defensive organization will be key to extending their winning run.

Wellington’s 35-24 victory over Waikato saw Jackson Garden-Bachop orchestrate attacking movements, scoring a try himself, while Julian Savea’s line-breaking power terrorized defenders. Aaron Cruden added composure with accurate kicking, supported by Xavier Roe and Xavier Saifoloi’s clever snipes.

Otago, following a narrow loss to Hawke’s Bay, will look to build on strong individual displays from Tamani and Nareki. The match will hinge on Wellington’s ability to control territory and ruck speed, preventing Otago from creating quick, wide opportunities. Expect Garden-Bachop’s tactical kicking, Savea’s finishing, and Cruden’s leadership to be central to a home win, while Otago will rely on counterattacks and line-breaks to stay competitive.

Waikato’s 24-35 home defeat to Wellington exposed defensive vulnerabilities against quick ball, with early tries conceded to PJ Scheck and Jackson Garden-Bachop. Olli Mathis and Tepaea Cook-Savage offered glimpses of attacking flair, but lapses in control proved costly.

Counties Manukau, despite losing 22-39 to Bay of Plenty, showcased Adam Brash and Ioane Moananu’s try-scoring instincts and resilience under pressure. In this fixture, Waikato must tighten ruck defence and manage errors to counter Counties’ opportunistic forwards and sniping backs. Brash and Moananu will aim to exploit space in the wide channels, while Waikato will depend on set-piece efficiency and wing pace to pressure the visitors. Discipline, ruck control, and structured backline execution will likely determine the result.