The Lions tour is in full swing, and with just over a week until the First Test, Warren Gatland’s predicted XV from March is looking scarily accurate.
Gatland, who coached the Lions in 2013, 2017, and 2021, named his hypothetical XV just after the Six Nations – and he wasn’t far off. Now, with the Australia series looming, 14 of his 15 picks are on tour, and most are deep in the Test conversation.
RUCK’s Lions content is
powered by ISUZU. The only man missing? Caelan Doris – ruled out through injury.
Gatland’s side leaned heavily on Ireland’s Six Nations dominance, backed up by Scottish flair and English steel. Only one Welshman made it – and he’s still in the mix for the starting Test team.
Warren Gatland’s Lions XV (Picked in March – Checked in July):
15. Hugo Keenan – Hasn’t featured much so far, but with Blair Kinghorn injured, Keenan could now start the Test series.
14. Duhan van der Merwe – Form has dipped, but still in the mix for the No.14 jersey.
13. Huw Jones – On tour and quietly building momentum in midfield.
12. Bundee Aki – A Test starter in waiting. Red-hot form.
11. James Lowe – One of the first names on the teamsheet. Test certainty.
10. Finn Russell – Bossing games, commanding the backline. Locked-in No.10.
9. Jamison Gibson-Park – Quick, sharp, and in full control. Test starter material.
8. Caelan Doris – ❌ Missed out through injury. The only non-tour pick.
7. Jac Morgan – Only Welshman in the squad, and still in the mix to start.
6. Tom Curry – Fit again and pushing hard. Back in Test contention.
5. Joe McCarthy – Huge physical presence. Climbing the pecking order.
4. Maro Itoje – Tour captain. Leading from the front and a nailed-on Test starter.
3. Will Stuart – Reliable and powerful. Holding his spot.
2. Dan Sheehan – Dynamic and dangerous. In pole position at hooker.
1. Andrew Porter – Workhorse and scrummaging anchor. Test starter likely.
The Takeaway? Gatland nailed it.
Despite naming his side back in March, before injuries and tour form came into play, the former Lions boss was nearly bang on. The spine of his team is shaping up to be the actual Test XV – with only Doris missing out due to injury.
Not bad for a man watching from the outside.
EDITORS PICKS:
Four Lions Who WON’T Feature in the Test Series vs Australia
With the first Test just over a week away, the Lions coaches are narrowing down their selections — and the pressure is at boiling point.
While some players have grabbed their chances, others have faltered at the worst possible moment.
Whether it’s form, fitness, or simply being outplayed by teammates, these four big names look set to miss out when the Lions take on the Wallabies in the Test arena.
1. Fin Smith
Opportunity missed.
There was a real sense that Fin Smith needed a standout showing to stay in the mix for the No.10 jersey — especially with Owen Farrell lurking and Marcus Smith offering more versatility.
Instead, the Saints fly-half delivered two underwhelming performances. He looked nervy against Argentina and struggled to control the game against the Waratahs, forcing too much and paying the price with errors.
With Finn Russell locked in and both Farrell and Marcus Smith ahead of him, Fin’s Test hopes have likely faded.
RUCK’s Lions content is
powered by ISUZU. 2. Pierre Schoeman
Overpowered when it mattered most.
The Lions scrum was meant to be a weapon — but against the Western Force, it was anything but. Schoeman struggled to assert himself and was part of a front row that got bullied.
With Ellis Genge putting in a dominant display the previous week, the Scottish loosehead couldn’t have picked a worse time to fall short. His usual power and edge just weren’t there.
Ireland’s Andrew Porter looks primed to take the bench role, leaving Schoeman on the outside looking in.
3. Duhan van der Merwe
Class is permanent — but form is everything.
Four years ago, Duhan van der Merwe was the Lions’ wrecking ball. But this tour, he’s looked sluggish, short on sharpness, and lacking his usual cutting edge.
Injuries have clearly disrupted his preparation, and it’s shown. Defensively vulnerable and ineffective in attack, he’s lost serious ground.
With James Lowe and Tommy Freeman both impressing, it’s hard to see how Duhan forces his way back into the Test conversation in time.
4. Tom Curry
Not the return he needed.
Few positions are more hotly contested than openside flanker — and Tom Curry just hasn’t done enough to separate himself. Against the Brumbies, he worked hard and managed an assist, but it wasn’t clean.
Turnovers, penalties, and a second-half fade led to an early substitution. Meanwhile, Jac Morgan and Josh van der Flier are ticking all the boxes, and Ben Earl’s versatility adds even more value.
Curry’s class is undeniable, but on current form, he looks set to miss the Test 23.