"Fall From Grace" - England's Drop Since Rugby World Cup Draw & Chances Against Pool Stage Opponents

England entered the draw for the competition as one of four top seeded sides. Valiant victories over Australia and the All Blacks took England to the 2019 Rugby World Cup Final, and glory in the 2020 Six Nations saw Jones' Triple Crown winning side become a revered nation amongst the global game.

England were subsequently booked in to occupy one of the top four spots for the 2023 Rugby World Cup, along with the Springboks, All Blacks and Wales, all of whom had been fellow semi-finalists in Japan. Jones' men were on top of the world, with 2021 Autumn victories over Australia and World Champions South Africa, solidifying their 2021`status amongst rugby's leading nations.

However, along with Warren Gatland's Wales (who will get their own RWC Pool Stage predictions article), England have since plummeted down the World Rugby rankings, after a series of historic defeats.

The warning signs began at the tail end of the Eddie Jones era. The 2022 Six Nations saw Scotland turn the tide, and set off the sands of time for the Australian's time in charge of England. Scotland's 20-17 victory at Murrayfield saw Gregor Townsend's men retain the Calcutta Cup, with back-to-back victories for the first time 1984. A successful 2-1 Summer series win over Australia presented promising signs for England, yet the following Autumn Internationals pulled the curtain down on Jones' time in charge.

A 29-30 loss to Argentina was the first defeat to Los Pumas at Twickenham since 2006, and marked a seismic narrative shift for the South American side. England then drew 25-25 against a re-building All Blacks team, with Marcus Smith's now infamous match-ending clearance cutting the wind from England's sails, despite Will Stuart's last-minute equalising try. Enough was enough for Jones after another heavy defeat to the Springboks (13-27), with the Australian sacked, in favour of Borthwick to take charge for the 2023 Six Nations.

Despite coming in to the role fresh from winning the 2021/22 Gallagher Premiership, the former Leicester Tigers Head Coach has so far been unable to convert the club level success to the international stage. The unwanted records continued for England, with the 2023 Six Nations getting off to the worst possible start for Borthwick. A third consecutive defeat to Scotland saw the Calcutta Cup remain North of the border, with the added salt in the wounds being Scotland's back-to-back wins at Twickenham, for the first time in over 100 years (last was 1909).

A routine win over Italy got Steve Borthwick his first win in charge at 'HQ', before England's away victory over Wales was overshadowed by the threatened Welsh strike action, admist the WRU contract negotiation saga. England admittedly performed poorly in Cardiff, and capitalised on the pre-occupied Welsh mindset to find a way to win. However, the following week's run-in against France optimised England's struggle, with a record home defeat at Twickenham (10-53).

An away trip to eventual Grand Slam champions Ireland ended in an expected defeat, and wrapped up an underwhelming 2023 Six Nations campaign. With the Rugby World Cup getting ever closer, Borthwick's men had the recent Summer Nations Series to right the wrongs, and boost team morale ahead of the trip to France. However, just one win in four games failed to achieve the objectives with the latest defeat being amongst England's most significant losses in recent years.

After drawing an ill-disciplined two-match series with Wales, and again feeling the might of Andy Farrell's Ireland, England were beaten by Fiji for the first time in their history. This was England's first ever loss to the Pacific Islanders, or any 'tier two' rugby nation for that matter (not in the Six Nations or SANZAAR). This monumental 30-22 defeat sees England drop to eighth in the World Rugby rankings, a record low which they have only sunk to once before, following the humiliating 2015 Rugby World Cup Pool Stage exit as the host nation.

With just three wins in nine matches, all eyes will be on Borthwick's side to deliver, yet expectations are dwindling for the trip across the channel. England have the talent in their ranks to turn their fortune around, and a run of improved performances could well see England progress through into the latter stages of this lop-sided competition.

Here is our thoughts on how each England match in Pool D will play out.

England get their toughest pool stage opponent first, with Argentina currently situated at sixth in the World Rugby rankings. Back in 2020, this match-up would have heavily favoured England, however some 32 months later, Steve Borthwick's side are the underdogs heading into their opening contest. Since his appointment as Head Coach in 2022, Michael Cheika has re-invigorated Los Pumas, and took them to some historic triumphs.

Last year, Cheika led Argentina to milestone Rugby Championship wins over the Wallabies and All Blacks, and in doing so became only the second Head Coach (after Eddie Jones) to defeat New Zealand with two sides, having previously secured a Bledisloe Cup triumph with Australia. Argentina pressed on from these victories with the aforementioned win at Twickenham last Autumn, and into the latest Rugby Championship with another win over Eddie Jones' side, this time being the Wallabies.

A one-point defeat to South Africa (22-21) was an impressive outing for Argentina, who look like the in-form side for the clash in Marseille. England come into the contest with the obvious poor form, and a heavily faltered squad due to suspensions and injuries. Both Borthwick's captain Owen Farrell and sole specialist number eight Billy Vunipola have been banned from the Rugby World Cup opener, following high tackles against Wales and Ireland.

A litany of injuries has also thinned out Borthwick's ranks, with the contention of Kyle Sinckler, Anthony Watson and Elliot Daly less than solidified. Scrum half Jack van Poortvliet will miss the entire competition, after suffering an ankle injury in the return match against Wales at Twickenham.

So, due to the current form of both teams and England left with no option but to field a weaker squad than hoped, Argentina could well come away victorious in 10 days time. This will start off England's hopes for the quarter-finals with a significant backwards step, and ignite a do-or-die mentality into the squad.

No strangers to a Rugby World Cup upset, Japan are the second banana peel England are set to encounter, with back-to-back slip ups a genuine possibility in France. Despite not having the element of surprise which caught of South Africa in the immortalised 'Brighton Miracle' of 2015, Japan have proven their capabilities when it comes to performing on the pinnacle stage.

In 2019, lightning struck twice for the Brave Blossoms, who recorded a second huge upset, this time coming at the expense of Ireland. The home-soil support catapulted Japan to top spot in Pool A, in a group which also featured home nation side Scotland. However, Japan's current form is not in as inspired as their performances from four years ago.

Despite still boasting their pocket rocket Kotaro Matsushima, and courageous captain Michael Leitch, Japan struggled during the Summer, with an underwhelming run in the Pacific Nations Cup. A third place finish saw Japan suffer a shocking defeat to Samoa, with retribution on the line when they clash later in Pool D. A defeat to Fiji was slightly heavier than England's loss (35-12), before Japan ended the Summer Nations Series with a loss to Italy, as the young-gun Azzurri ran out a resounding 42-21 win in Treviso.

England will have Billy Vunipola back from suspension, and if recoveries go to plan, Elliot Daly and Kyle Sinckler should also be eligible for selection. England will battle Japan at a good time, with the Blossoms in a similar rut that Steve Borthwick's men could well capitalise upon. An England win would kick-start their hopes of further progression, and boost confidence for the two 'easier' matches in the pool.

England's third match of their Rugby World Cup campaign is against competition debutants Chile. Los Condores are embarking on their first ever trip to the tournament, after recording historic wins of their own in qualifying. Chile secured victoires over Canada and the USA to stamp their ticket to France, with the weightless expectations on them, to just run out and do their country proud.

However, such low expectations can sometimes play to a team's advantage. You would be hard pressed to find a rugby fan or pundit who is genuinely convinced that Chile will beat England in match day three. Some wise-cracking fan of Ireland, Scotland or Wales may make the occasional joke, but do they actually believe that England will be beaten by Chile in the first ever encounter? Surely not.

Chile's squad is made up almost predominately from players that represent Selknam, the Super Rugby Americas side based in the nation's capital of Santiago. Chile’s captain is flanker Martín Sigren, he played for Selknam in 2020-2022 before moving to Doncaster Knights in the RFU Championship.

Prop Matías Dittus plays for Club Athlétique Périgueux in France’s Pro Rugby D2, whilst Center Iñaki Ayarza also plays in the Pro D2 for Soyaux Angoulême XV, and lock Pablo Huete used to play for Bayonne in the French Top 14, before joining Selknam. England will have Owen Farrell back for this match, with the sheer miss-match in quality playing into Steve Borthwick's favour, for what should be a comfortable win.

Expected to be coming into this match following a heavy win over Chile, England take on Samoa in their final pool stage fixture. There is a good chance that Samoa and England will be battling for a spot in the knock-out stages, if they've both suffered defeats to Argentina, and recorded wins over Japan and Chile.

If this is the case, the Pacific Islanders would pull no punches from Steve Borthwick's men. However, if Manu Samoa's elimination from the competition is already confirmed, then England will have an easier ride against the dejected Samoans. There is no understating the extent of Pacific Island national pride, yet if England get a foothold in the match with Samoa's elimination already decided, then the floodgates could well and truly open.

Contrastingly, if quarter-final progression is viable for Samoa, then they will battle with all their might to make it as difficult as possible for Borthwick's men to succeed. No matter who Borthwick selects, they will be feeling the affects of a bruising encounter with the famously hard-hitting Samoans the next day. Overall, a full strength England side should be able to overcome Samoa, who despite being geographically similar to Fiji, are a world away in terms of on-field performances.

Samoa will be bolstered by the recent recruitments of Bristol Bears flanker Steven Luatua, Rugby World Cup winning prop Charlie Faumuina and former Wallabies playmaker Christian Leali'ifano. However, when riding a wave of winning momentum, England's full capacity should overcome Samoa, even with their newly eligible re-enforcements. Following this, we believe that England will finish second in Pool D, and progress out of the group alongside Los Pumas.

PREDICTION: England 28 - 12 Samoa