EXPLAINED: How the All Blacks, Wallabies, Springboks & Pumas can ALL win the Rugby Championship

Thursday, 25 September 2025 at 15:14

byTom Sansom

We are currently four rounds into the 2025 Rugby Championship, and remarkably, all four nations, New Zealand, South Africa, Australia, and Argentina, all sit with two wins and two losses apiece. Only bonus points and points difference separate them, making this one of the closest tournaments in the history of the competition.

With two rounds remaining as we enter round five this weekend, the margins are razor thin to take home the trophy. In this article, we're crunching down the numbers to see how the Wallabies, Springboks, All Blacks and Pumas could all mathematically win this year's Rugby Championship. Here’s how each team stands, what they need, and who history suggests might have the edge ahead of the final fortnight.

The State of Play

Australia lead the table on 11 points.

South Africa (2nd) and New Zealand (3rd) follow on 10.

South Africa have favourable Points Difference at +18, compared to New Zealand's -15.

Argentina sit just behind on 9 Points - by no means out of the running.

Upcoming fixtures:

ROUND 5 - Saturday 27th September

New Zealand vs Australia - Eden Park, Auckland

South Africa vs Argentina - Kings Park Stadium, Durban

ROUND 6

Australia vs New Zealand - Optus Stadium, Perth

South Africa vs Argentina - Allianz Stadium, Twickenham

Australia: On top, but under pressure

The Wallabies are in the driver's seat with 11 points, but their two clashes with New Zealand will define their fate. A win in Auckland would be a statement result, to end the almighty unbeaten streak that now stretches to 51 Tests across 31 years. If backed up with a home victory in Perth, they’ll likely seal the Championship.

Their problem? History. The All Blacks have dominated them in recent years, and Eden Park has long been a graveyard for Wallaby hopes in the Bledisloe Cup. If they split the series 1-1, bonus points could still keep them alive, but two losses would almost certainly end their run.

South Africa: Big momentum, favourable fixtures

The Springboks have the psychological edge after their record 43-10 demolition of New Zealand in Wellington. With two games against Argentina left, Rassie Erasmus' men control their own destiny.

A win in Durban would set the tone; follow it up with another in London in front of a frenzied 'home crowd of green and gold, and the title is almost certainly theirs. The Boks will rely on their trademark power game and tactical kicking to squeeze the Pumas. Split the series, however, and they’ll be hoping Australia falter against New Zealand.

New Zealand: All Blacks must hit back

The All Blacks have looked uncharacteristically fragile throughout the Rugby Championship, with a shock upset in Argentina and especially after that bruising loss to South Africa. To win the Championship, they’ll need to beat Australia twice, or at least once with bonus points, and that hope South Africa stumble.

History favours the All Blacks against the Wallabies, especially at Eden Park, but inconsistency has been the undoing of Scott Robertson's side this year. The return of scrum-half Cam Roigard adds some spark to an injury hit back-line, but they’ll need sharper defence and discipline to stay alive.

Argentina: Dark horses, slim margins

The Pumas have already made history in 2025, with two first-time triumphs after beating Australia in Sydney and New Zealand upon Argentine soil. Those results prove they can take down giants, but the run-in is brutal: back-to-back matches against the Springboks.

To win the title, Felipe Contepomi's men almost certainly need two victories - at least one with a bonus point, and then rely on New Zealand and Australia cancelling each other out. It’s a long shot, but if they pull it off, it would be the first ever Rugby Championship crown for Los Pumas.

Head-to-Head History: Who has the edge?

New Zealand vs Australia

The All Blacks dominate the Bledisloe rivalry, especially at Eden Park, where the Wallabies haven’t won since 1986. History would favour New Zealand, who have held the Bledisloe Cup since 2003, to at least take one win from their two-match series against Joe Schmidt's Wallabies.

South Africa vs Argentina

The Springboks lead this head-to-head heavily, though Argentina have claimed famous wins in Durban before. Argentina bagged a famous win over the Springboks in the final fortnight of the 2024 Rugby Championship, in front of a rampant crowd in Santiago de Estero. However, the Springboks are back atop the World Rugby rankings and have never lost a multi-match series against Los Pumas.

Best-Case / Worst-Case Scenarios

Team	Best Case	Worst Case	Likely Path	Chance of Winning
Australia	Beat New Zealand twice and lift the trophy.	Lose both to New Zealand and tumble down the table.	Split the series and rely on South Africa slipping.	30%
South Africa	Do the double over Argentina and seal the Championship.	Lose both to the Pumas and finish last.	Win in Durban and scrape enough in London to edge it.	35%
New Zealand	Sweep Australia and hope South Africa falter.	Fall twice to the Wallabies and slump to the bottom.	Win once with bonus points and pray results go their way.	25%
Argentina	Shock South Africa twice and watch AUS/NZ cancel each other out.	Drop both matches and take the wooden spoon.	Steal one win and finish in the middle of the pack.	10%

With every nation still in the hunt, this is the most unpredictable Rugby Championship in years. South Africa carry momentum and favourable fixtures, but Australia’s points advantage keeps them in front. New Zealand will always fancy themselves at home, and Argentina have nothing to lose and everything to gain. Two rounds, four matches – and one of the great finales in Rugby Championship history awaits.