EXPLAINED: How the All Blacks, Springboks and Wallabies can ALL win the Rugby Championship

With just one round to go and two matches remaining, the margins are fine to decide the title. Here’s how each team stands, what they need, and who history suggests might have the edge ahead of the final weekend of the competition.

Australia vs New Zealand – Optus Stadium, Perth, Australia

South Africa vs Argentina – Twickenham, London

The Springboks are clear favourites, the 67–30 hammering of Argentina in Durban, has given Rassie Erasamus' side considerable momentum ahead of the final round at Allianz Stadium, Twicenham. A bonus-point win guarantees a title retention for the Springboks, no matter what happens in Perth.

Even without a bonus, a standard 4-point win may still see them home, but anything less leaves the door open for the All Blacks or Wallabies to exploit. The Boks’ power upfront, suffocating defence, and game-breaking backs give them the edge heading into the finale.

The All Blacks’ path is narrower. They must beat Australia in Perth, ideally with a bonus point, and hope South Africa either lose or fail to collect a bonus against Argentina. Their record against the Wallabies in big moments gives them belief, but their fate is no longer fully in their hands.

Scott Barrett returns as captain, while Leicester Fainga’anuku is called up to the wing for his first cap since the 2023 Rugby World Cup, giving them fresh firepower. The All Blacks will need accuracy and discipline if they are to snatch the title, and do the Bledisloe Cup double over the Wallabies.

The Wallabies sit on 11 points and must first beat New Zealand in Perth – preferably with a bonus point – then pray South Africa stumble. Even then, points difference may be decisive.

They will be spurred on by the occasion, with veteran prop James Slipper playing his farewell Test, but history is stacked against them. New Zealand have long dominated this fixture, and Australia must find something extraordinary to stay alive.

The Pumas can no longer win the Championship, but they still have a role to play. A shock win over South Africa at Twickenham would not only restore pride after their Durban drubbing, but could also swing the title towards New Zealand or Australia.

They’ve rung the changes for this final match, bringing in seven new faces, and will look to play with freedom. Out of contention, but not out of influence.

Australia vs New Zealand – The All Blacks dominate this rivalry, with Australia’s last Bledisloe Cup series win coming in 2001. Perth offers hope, but history heavily favours New Zealand.

South Africa vs Argentina – The Springboks hold a dominant record against Argentina, though the Pumas have shocked them before, including recent wins in Durban and Mendoza.

The 2025 Rugby Championship will come down to the final whistle of the final match, in what has been one of the closest tournaments in recent memory. South Africa hold all the cards, needing just one more win to clinch glory. New Zealand and Australia cling to hope, dependent on both their own results and a Springbok stumble. Argentina, out of contention, could yet decide who takes the crown. One weekend, two matches and one of the tightest Championship races in memory will finally be settled.