"Four changes" - England vs South Africa: Predicting Borthwick's Team for Rugby World Cup Semi-Final

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England take on South Africa for the sixth time at the Rugby World Cup, and are a side who have historically had the edge over England at the competition. In the past five World Cup meetings between the two sides, the Springboks have won on four occasions, including the 2019 and 2007 Rugby World Cup Finals. South Africa reached the semi-final after clawing past France with a narrow 29-28 win.

It is now down to Borthwick to make some key selection choices ahead of the weekend. Here are our predictions for Steve Borthwick's side, that will take on South Africa for a spot in the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final.

15. Freddie Steward (Leicester Tigers) for Marcus Smith

It could have all been part of the plan to leave Freddie Steward out of the squad for the match against Fiji, with Marcus Smith's unpredictable dynamism a better match to take on the Pacific Islanders. Steward is now far better rested than Smith, who was left beaten and bruised after the quarter-final battle, and now the Leicester Tigers man is rumoured to be on his way back into the starting line-up for the semi-final clash with the Springboks.

Borthwick will be looking at were Steward bests Smith from a fullback perspective, with Steward's size, experience and talents under the high ball all playing into the selection. Steward is 4 stone heavier and 5 inches taller than Smith, giving him an edge on bringing down the towering line-breaks of the Boks. Steward is also regarded amongst the best players under the arial assault, and his abilities will likely be called upon when Pollard, Libbok and de Klerk send the ball skyward into the Parisian night.

Steward has the proven experience of handling a back-line in the high-stakes matches, and has worn the 15 jersey for 89 of his 96 career starts. Smith however, got his first ever taste of fullback in the Summer loss to Fiji, with just five positional caps and 194 on-field minutes under his fullback belt. We expect to see Smith dropped to the bench, to be a key impact player once the match opens up, after the opening arm-wrestle with South Africa.

We also predict Borthwick to select Elliot Daly and Jonny May out on the wings, with the two players having proven their defensive capabilities. Daly doubles up as a nice covering option across the midfield and the back three, with May also capable to swap wings if need be. Borthwick knows that it will be a ultimately physical test against South Africa, and will need his most versatile and adaptable side ready for any untimely injuries.

We predict that despite scoring five tries in his sole Rugby World Cup appearance to date, Henry Arundell will be left out of the squad for the semi-final stage. The explosive 20-year-old winger was unused in the dead-rubber match against Samoa, and again in the quarter-final test with Fiji. It is looking increasingly unlikely for his involvement against the Springboks, despite the clambering fan support.

England should stick with their tried-and-tested midfield that has been working so far in the tournament. We saw just how convoluted the game-plan became, when Owen Farrell was re-introduced to the centres against Samoa. England lost their attacking structure, with two many halfbacks spoiling the pot. bringing Farrell back in at 12 could over-complicate matters, and South Africa are a side that do the basics well, and nail them every time.

We can see Borthwick sticking with the Tuilagi-Marchant midfield axis, as the two work together symbiotically in the centres. Tuilagi brings his immense ball carrying strengths, whilst Marchant possess neat playmaking skills, to create space on the wrapping lines. The Sale Sharks man benefits from the open-field ingenuity of Marchant, with the pair both shining with quarter-final tries against Fiji. Tuilagi's effort was a bulldozing drive from close range, whilst Marchant sold the dummy, and manoeuvred his way over the try-line to showcase his own unique skillset.

This leaves the contention of Ollie Lawrence in doubt for the match-day 23. The Bath man has been a fine understudy for Tuilagi, but with Marcus Smith, George Ford and Alex Mitchell as the backs on our bench, we see no space for the centre against South Africa. Marchant's adaptability to push out wide if called upon adds to his claim for the 13 jersey, however he shouldn't be started on the wing as England did against Samoa. Despite his out-and-out pace, Marchant is best utilised alongside Tuilagi up the midfield of the park.

9. Danny Care (Harlequins) for Alex Mitchell

Once again the fly-half selection debate has reared it's ugly head, however England fans are growing tired of the debate, and trust in their captain once again. Owen Farrell had a stunning outing against Fiji, and it could be argued that without him, England looked like a side set for a slip-up. Farrell bossed the game against the Pacific Islanders, and returned to his regular-scheduled position with great aplomb. Farrell is a fly half, and unfortunately for George Ford, he is a fly-half thats back in top form.

The match against South Africa could well come down to the narrow margins, with Farrell being an equally qualified place kicker, like his Sale Sharks teammate. Granted, Ford was hailed for his 27-point display in the opening round against Argentina, but Farrell added 20 points of his own against Fiji, and presented his ability to slot a drop goal to boot. As long as the Saracen keeps his eye on the count-down clock, and the tee is brought to him in time, England should fare just fine from the shots at the posts.

This leaves the question around who should partner Farrell at scrum half. Ben Youngs is the most experienced nine (or men's England player for that matter), but has barely featured in the tournament in time for a late return to the squad. England fans have just shaken the memories of Young's 'pass to touch' from the 2019 Rugby World Cup Final against the Boks, with Danny Care being our pick for Saturday night's semi-final.

Care has the high-stakes experience. The two-time Premiership winner has taken Harlequins to the grandest heights, and has a trio of Six Nations winners medals in his cabinet. Fans marvelled at Borthwick's decision to pick 'DC' for an extended run at the Rugby World Cup, with Jack van Poortvliet injured, and Alex Mitchell could be well utilised off the bench to shake up the tempo.

1. Joe Marler (Harlequins) for Ellis Genge

3. Kyle Sinckler (Bristol Bears) for Dan Cole

There is increasingly reported speculation, that Joe Marler will be picked to start over Ellis Genge as England's loose-head against South Africa. This is in no way a demotion for the 'Baby Rhino', but a Borthwick tactic to enable both men to play to their strengths at important moments of the match. Marler knows the big-fight pressure that the Springboks impose in the early scrums, and is the right man for the job from kick-off.

The Harlequin battled the 'Boks in the 2019 Rugby World Cup Final, and he is still amongst the best loose-head scrummagers in the world. Marler will bring the tactical know-how to try and counter-act the early Springboks' offensive, with Ellis Genge primed and ready to jump into action in a race to the finish, once Rassie Erasmus activates his 'Bomb Squad' from the bench.

Four years on after being knocked out in an early collision with Maro Itoje, Kyle Sinckler will be ready to make amends for the 2019 Rugby World Cup Final. The Bristol Bears prop has only been improving since the show-down in Japan, and has stepped up his set-piece game to no end. Now at 30-years-old, Sinckler has dropped the 'hot-headed' tag that made him a target in Yokohama, and will be an integral pillar in the England pack.

Jamie George will almost certainly start against the Springboks, as long as he avoids any unforeseen training injuries. England's replacement hookers are too internationally inexperienced to take George's spot, with the Saracen primed and ready for another big shift in the front row, having only missed nine minutes of action, in four Rugby World Cup matches (unselected against Chile).

England will expectedly stick with their strongest lock partnership for the semi-final, with Maro Itoje and Ollie Chessum set to pack down the scrum once again. Amongst all the discussion as to how Borthwick is unsure about his strongest squad along the back-line, the 57-capped England lock certainly knows what his first choice second row pairing is.

Maro Itoje had put in an excellent performance against Fiji, with England fans excited to see the Saracen back hitting his top gear in time for the Rugby World Cup's knock-out stages. We had seen glimpses of the classic Itoje throughout the pool phases, with the lock getting back to his very best in time for a re-match of the 2019 Rugby World Cup Final.

Expected to partner Itoje for this clash with the Boks, Ollie Chessum has been one of England's top performers of the pool stages. He delighted England fans by recovering from an untimely ankle injury, after being a star-man in an albeit disappointing 2023 Six Nations. Chessum has been involved in every match of England's 2023 Rugby World Cup campaign, and it does not look like this trend is going to break in time for the semi-finals.

The back-row discussion is another area of Borthwick's game-plan that has become increasingly clear-cut throughout the World Cup. Heading into the competition, England fans were left scratching their heads when Billy Vunipola was named as the only specialist number eight and then took a red card suspension to begin the tournament.

Ben Earl has proven to be a more than viable option to pack down the back of the scrum. Earl has been in unplayable form, with his stand-out number eight performances coming against Argentina to open the tournament, and against Fiji with Man of the Match run-outs. Earl made 11 carriers and 14 tackles against Fiji, and presented his adaptability by moving across to flanker, as Vunipola replaced Tom Curry.

The Sale Sharks man should also start in the semi-final, but he needs to watch his discipline against the Springboks. Curry was red-carded two minutes into the opening match against Argentina for a head clash with Juan Cruz Mallia, and was lucky to stay on the pitch against Fiji. Curry was a repeat penalty offender in the quarter-final, but his on-field performance overshadowed these issues which he'll be ironing out in the training week. Curry made a staggering 19 tackles against Fiji, and topped the charts for the game.

Courtney Lawes has also been in formidable form throughout the Rugby World Cup, having settled in nicely to his leadership roles of co-captain and pack leader. Lawes put in a stunning performance against Fiji and must return to the England blindside for the semi-final. Lawes was England's top carrier against the Pacific Islanders, with 13 carriers for 72 metres. The Northampton Saints man also controlled the set-piece, and worked well with Itoje to win the ball in the air.

The back injury to Jack Willis has opened the door for a late call-up to Sam Underhill, with the Bath back-row unused against Fiji. It's hard to say whether Borthwick will give Underhill a seat on the bench, and introduce a new element into the seemingly calmed back-row discussion. Vunipola can have a seismic impact off the bench, and explode across the gain-line in a late 'bomb squad' style involvement.