EPCR Challenge Cup: How Exeter Chiefs & Newcastle Red Bulls can Qualify for knock-out stage

Exeter will face a trip away to Stade Francais in Paris, who have won both of their games so far as well as flying high in the Top14. Kingston Park will host the clash between Newcastle and Perpignan, who turned over the Dragons in Round 1, before falling short away to Benetton last time out.

Exeter and Stade Francais will take each other on as the top two in the group. Third-placed Ulster will travel to Amsterdam to play the Cheetahs, whilst Cardiff host Racing 92.

Beating Stade Francais in any fashion will automatically qualify Exeter for the next round. With at least 12 points in the league, it would be mathematically impossible for four of the teams to finish above them.

In the case of a three-point draw, there is still a good chance they can qualify automatically for the next round, but it would take one of Cardiff or Racing to finish on six or less points. That can be with Cardiff to win without any bonuses, a draw with or without try bonuses for both sides, or if Racing win but Cardiff only pick up one bonus point maximum.

If they draw or lose, there are still ways that results can go against them next week, which mostly relies on their game against Cardiff. Should they lose: Ulster, Cardiff and Racing 92 all have the chance to jump above them in the table.

Exeter’s chance at qualification is quite high. Safety can be guaranteed this week, but should they lose, they would remain one of the favourites to qualify in Round 4.

Second-in-the-table Newcastle host third-placed Perpignan, whilst the Lions and Lyon play each other at the bottom, and table-topping Benetton host the Dragons.

The Red Bulls can automatically qualify for the knockouts with three league points or more, meaning a win, with or without the bonus point, or a draw with a bonus point.

Finishing on just ten points in the league doesn’t guarantee automatic qualification, but is likely depending on other results.

Should Perpignan gain just one league point, which is likely in a win/draw to Newcastle, they can still catch them in the next game week, as well as the Dragons gaining two league points.

It all rests on the shoulders of the Lions vs Lyon game. Both on one league point each, the winner needs a full five point win to have a chance of catching Newcastle’s ten points in that scenario. If neither of them get the full five, Newcastle cannot be caught by either side at the bottom, therefore guaranteeing them a knockout spot.

Only a loss to Perpignan can see Newcastle with a chance to fall out of the top four in the last round, but their qualification into knockouts so far is very likely to happen, especially this week.